NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Season Finale.
Entering the last weekend of the regular NFL campaign, only a pair of postseason berths are still up for grabs. Yet, a great deal more is on the line, including the highly desired #1 rankings in both conferences and four division titles.
The schedule makers have produced a perfect ending, with the final two play-off positions to be decided in a pair of head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The victor of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will claim the fourth seed and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, Buffalo and the Chargers are set as wildcard teams.
The Texans require a win and a Jacksonville defeat to jump from fifth to the third seed. The Broncos will earn the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could pave the way for the Patriots or the Jaguars to claim it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the winner of the Panthers-Buccaneers matchup, earning them the fourth seed. Notably, Carolina could still win the divisional title even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
The Packers are locked into the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and San Francisco, with a first-round bye and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC receives a crucial first-round bye and home games throughout the play-offs.
During Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six qualified teams compete: the #2 team plays the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the Divisional Round, the top seeds enter the competition, facing the lowest remaining seed. The AFC and NFC championship games are then hosted by the highest seed, highlighting the immense importance of earning that #1 ranking.
AFC North Decider: A Brutal Finale
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match reaches its climax in the last contest of the NFL season. With the AFC North and a postseason spot on the line, this is a true elimination situation.
The Steelers have been up and down all year, while Baltimore started poorly but remain in contention. Player availability may prove critical: The Steelers may miss star receiver their top wideout, while the Ravens' signal-caller their MVP QB is questionable with a health issue.
Running back the powerful back might emerge as the difference-maker for the Ravens in what promises to be a hard-hitting, defensive battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is at stake when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The victorious team secures the conference's #1 spot and the road to the championship game that comes with it.
This game features an explosive 49ers offense against a dominant Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy returned, San Francisco have been the NFL's highest scorers. Conversely, Seattle's defense is ranked second best in the NFL.
Seattle QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have plagued him this year. The team that wins this clash gains a huge edge for the playoff run.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this contest with strong form. The Buccaneers have dropped four straight, while Carolina have squandered chances to clinch the title.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is more complex. Even with a victory, they require help from the Falcons-Saints matchup to steal the division crown.
AFC's Top Seed Up for Grabs
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Denver defeat would hand the top seed to New England.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the dark horse. They need a win and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to achieve an unlikely rise to the top. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could see them passed by the Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
